The latest Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index Report (NIQHPIR) highlights that, after successive increases over the course of 2024, the average NI house price went down to £214,478 – representing a 3.4% decrease from Q3 2024 but still 2.9% higher than Q4 2023.
While the approach of Christmas generally influences purchase behaviour, information from agents suggests that fewer enquiries and purchases of larger, detached properties show consumers are tempering their spending. This can possibly be attributed to the rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions, the increased rate of unemployment (4.4%) reaching a six-month high, along with wider geopolitical factors, which are continuing to cause some uncertainty for households.
The Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index continues to deliver in-depth insights into the housing market, thanks to research by Ulster University in partnership with the Northern Ireland Housing Executive and Progressive Building Society. This specific report analyses the performance of the Northern Ireland housing market during the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November and December).
Performance by Property Type
Research analysis by property type showed decreasing price movements throughout the final quarter, highlighting terrace/townhouse average price of £147,281 showing a price decline of 2.4%, the same decline experienced for semi-detached sectors of the market with average prices dropping to £195,585. The detached market showed a decrease of 1.9% bring average prices to £319,402, and apartment prices went down slightly less, at 1.7% valuing properties at £159,991.
In comparison, annually, both the detached and terrace/townhouse sectors displayed price increases of 5.5% and 5.6% respectively, whereas the apartment sector displayed a smaller price increase of 2.9%. The semi-detached sector revealed 0% price growth relative to this time last year.
Overall, the annual rate of price change exhibits an unweighted increase of 3.6% compared with Q4 2023 levels indicating that overall house prices remain higher than this time last year. The market remains in a state of uncertainty as budgetary changes, economic slowdown, and potential tax modifications—such as stamp duty adjustments—create hesitation among buyers and sellers. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, delaying transactions until interest rates are lowered and financial conditions become clearer. This cautious sentiment may lead to a temporary slowdown in market activity, with decisions hinging on future policy shifts and economic stability.
Strategy Published
While households may adapt their behaviour in response to changes in the wider economic context, there is broad agreement on the need for an increase in housing supply in Northern Ireland, and lack of supply has been a factor consistently highlighted by agents who provide feedback.
The Northern Ireland Housing Executive welcomed the publication of the 15-year Housing Supply Strategy this quarter, and in particular its commitment to safe, warm and affordable housing. The strategy has an ambition to deliver at least 100,000 homes – one third of which would be social dwellings – between 2024 and 2039.
Introducing the findings, Dr Michael McCord, Reader in valuation, investment and finance at Ulster University, and lead researcher stated:
“The Northern Ireland housing market remained resilient in the final quarter of 2024, recording annual house price growth of 2.9%, despite a seasonal slowdown and a price dip in the final quarter of the year. The housing market has observed a year of transition and a market adjusting to changing economic realities, interest rate fluctuations, and ongoing supply challenges. Throughout 2024, the housing market experienced phases of steady price growth, largely driven by strong consumer confidence and a competitive mortgage landscape in the first half of the year which seen sustained market momentum.
“However, as inflationary pressures, fiscal policy changes, and mortgage rate adjustments have began to bite, the final months of the year saw a more cautious approach by prospective buyers and sellers. As the market enters 2025, we expect further market adjustments as affordability, interest rates, economic uncertainty and supply dynamics continue to influence buyer decisions.”
Ursula McAnulty, Head of Research at the Housing Executive, which commissions the analysis, said:
“The final quarter of the year is traditionally a slower period for the housing market. However, Q4 2024 witnessed a higher number of transactions than the previous quarter, and although there was a slight quarterly drop in house prices (3.4%), annually house prices grew by (2.9%) from Q4 2023 – signalling stability in the housing market in NI across the year as a whole.
“Looking forward, feedback from agents showed that 55% expected market pricing would maintain at current levels and potentially increase; nonetheless, 45% indicated that pricing levels would continue to be impacted by the reaction to the budgetary announcements, in particular the upcoming changes to employer national insurance contributions.”
Michael Boyd, Chief Executive of Progressive Building Society, said:
“House prices in Northern Ireland saw a 2.9% year-on-year increase, with mortgage market activity remaining resilient in 2024 despite the ongoing affordability challenges facing would-be buyers. A dominant feature remains the lack of new housing stock coming onto the market for sale. That didn’t change in 2024, with the last quarter marked by a slowing down of both buyer and seller activity.
“Given that the number of new homes built last year was the lowest since 1959, the tight supply situation will likely continue into 2025, keeping prices steady. The markets are expecting a 0.25% cut in interest rates, which should boost consumer confidence and the general economic outlook but, undoubtedly, a fuller picture will emerge when the Government’s budgetary changes take full effect.”
Read the full report findings: Ulster University House Price Index Q4 2024